The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced that it is leaving the Organisation of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC), which could indicate a shift in the balance of power on oil swinging away from the Middle East to the United States (US).

OPEC is a cartel of some of the world’s leading oil producers, which work together to influence the global oil market and price. It was established in 1960.

The UAE, which said it will leave OPEC on Friday, first joined the group in 1967.

The decision by the UAE to leave OPEC is the most significant break in global energy power balances since the Arab states turned off the oil taps to punish the US and the West more broadly for their support of Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur war. It also mirrors the power swing on global gas supplies that occurred after the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. This led to Russian gas to Europe being cut with Europe turning to the US to make up the difference.

Continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz may end up having the same effect on global oil power balances, especially given that the US currently has control over Venezuelan oil reserves.

The UAE is also a close US ally and has been frustrated at the failure of other Arab states to take a strong enough line against the current threat posed by Iran.

OPEC has struggled to maintain cohesion in the face of competing national interests, particularly as member states balance revenue needs against geopolitical pressures. The UAE, with its relatively low production costs and expanding capacity, has increasingly found itself constrained by quota systems that no longer reflect its strategic ambitions.

The wider context is decisive. The United States has emerged as a dominant energy power, not only through shale production but also through its ability to influence supply chains and capital flows. This has altered the calculus for producers such as the UAE, which now see greater advantage in aligning more closely with market dynamics than with cartel discipline.

Chokepoint risk further sharpens that shift. Control over maritime routes has always shaped energy power, with narrow passages offering leverage over global trade flows. As uncertainty around key routes persists, the ability to diversify supply sources and reduce dependence on vulnerable corridors becomes a strategic imperative.

The UAE’s exit is therefore less an isolated decision than part of a broader reordering of global energy power.